Force Majeure: Learnings for Later
When we are overcome by a great force, it’s almost impossible in the moment to figure out how we could have been better prepared. Now is not that time. The somber stories of a new professional reality continue to roll in. Layoffs. Compensation reductions. Client business reduction. Personal distractions.
If you had theoretically walked out of the woods like Jared Leto..
And then saw this chart..
What would you think had happened?
A pandemic was certainly not on any economic or hiring forecast in January. Even though it was building in the news, it didn’t feel like it would ever come anywhere close to home. And now, so much has changed over the past 45 days that one cannot help but wonder what might permanently change on the other side of this global crisis.
This is not a time to reflect, in the middle of it all, but it is a good time to wonder, pose questions, and see things as they truly are for later:
- Travel & Entertainment businesses have been decimated
- Our local economies are struggling
- The remote work economy is booming in a grand experiment
- Digitization is accelerating, at least by online & mobile hours spent
- Internet businesses publicly are performing better than average
- Energy businesses publicly are performing worse than average
- Amazon is positioned perfectly, PR aside
- Real Estate struggling as tenant cash flows get crunched
- Advertising budgets reduced as companies scramble to cut costs and save cash
What any strong leader or manager will realize is that while there is probably something like a 1% chance of a pandemic happening in a given year, there is something like a 100% chance anything else will go wrong…every year.
Is it our job as managers to keep money in the bank or pick the industry we operate in to shield us from these calamities? No, but the lessons for a future company, considered role, or investment should be heeded.
How can we prepare and plan better in the year(s) ahead?
There’s some research by Tom Corley, author of Rich Habits, that shows 65% of millionaires have at least three sources of income. And a great blog post from a few years ago written by the Founder & CEO of SuccessFactors, Lars Dalgaard, that talks about building weatherproof companies. Its key takeaways are “great companies are bought, not sold” and to build with a mindset that strengthens your team and company for the long term, regardless of externalities.
Maybe the lesson is that we can’t predict the future, but we can predict it will be uncertain and that we’ll need multiple strategies, products, and distribution channels in order to better position resources and survive when the world changes.
Invest in secular trends. Work at businesses that are solving problems for the world of tomorrow, and build teams that are adaptive to our ever changing reality. There is always another crisis around the corner. We should be hopeful that we’ll all be better prepared in the years ahead from the lessons of today, later.