There is a natural lifecycle to the construction of successful startups. A bold new idea is incorporated into a company. Its rogue team of innovators bring the technology to market. They grow rapidly from favorable winds of shifting consumer behavior and market adoption. These tailwinds send them skyward before.. their rapid growth flattens into a more mature phase of consistent adoption.

You’ve probably read that in a book somewhere a time or two from Everett Rogers, Geoffrey Moore, or another copycat extraordinaire. Allow me to introduce this popular adoption s-curve you’re likely accustomed to in some aforementioned way, shape, or form:

If you ALSO have the time I’d strongly suggest pairing that visual with this preposterously awesome Invisible asymptotes 2018 blog post by Eugene Wei about seeing hidden signs of maturation. It’s long, but it’s really good.

Now, as a manager, you’re part of a team climbing the adoption curve. As a fiduciary of your own career and its trajectory you kind of owe it to yourself to figure out where you’re plotted on that curve. Because somewhere out there are those pesky invisible s-curve asymptotes and sometime soon that 51% transition to the late majority is going to happen.

How do you know when you’re there?

I would hypothesize, based on my own experience and some recent conversations, it’s when you start to hear ideas becoming recycled. That great project pitched in 2019 that didn’t get green lit for some pretty good reasons becomes popular again in 2022. It’s probably a new stakeholder fired up to get it going. Hey, they want to get promoted! But if you were around in 2019 and knew the informed learnings from 2018 it doesn’t seem so innovative. It’s recycled.

Some of us are probably experiencing a recycle ratio that feels higher than it should be. Like 51% more old ideas than new ones, basically. Especially with slowing growth and some pretty strong recessionary vibes out there. A lot of ideas are going to get recycled in the name of…doing stuff.

So what does that mean?

Well, it’s probably not that interesting to be working on ideas you already tried or threw in the trash. Second, it sort of spells a slowing pace of innovation and progress that might signal your company is on the back half of its adoption life. So if you’ve felt stuck in the intellectual muck of the same old ideas being recycled as something new then you know exactly what I’m talking bout.

The idea recycle ratio is an interesting and potentially useful gauge of your business’ momentum…directionally. Hey, it’s just an idea. But keep an eye out, flattening growth comes for us all. If you know, you know!