Ah, how blissful to take the summer off from writing. Was it a quiet summer? Oh noo no no. We moved! Out of the Bay to Boston. Took some vacation. Got Covid on vacation. Had to put my head down and do a fair amount of work too. So yeah, like many of you I’m limping back into the swing of things.

You may have noticed the temperature has risen…and I’m not talking about the weather. All across the tech ecosystem the heat is on with teams “pushing harder” amid headwinds of slumping growth, plunging valuations, and an escalating sense of impending doom.

What else did I miss?

Elon Musk was trying to buy Twitter as we entered the summer. Now Elon Musk is desperately trying to do anything he possibly can in order to NOT buy Twitter as their board attempts to force him to close at a valuation nowhere near its open market value.

Tech IPOs, M&A, and other capital market activity has dried up faster than the Colorado River. Does that about cover the summer?

Household names like Coinbase, Twilio, Peloton, Shopify, Robinhood, Wayfair, and many many more have laid off good people. Snap laid off almost 20% of their employees 2 weeks ago yet headcount is roughly flat relative to their pre pandemic workforce. Wut? Some of that growth wasn’t exactly grown into. They’re not alone. It’s been a weird couple of years. Layoffs.fyi has registered 80,000+ jobs shorn YTD. Ugh.

In today’s environment the grass not only isn’t greener next door, it’s burnt out across the neighborhood. Which brings me to my next point. This new feeling of recessionary fear. For us Millennials, Gen Z’ers and the rest of the early / mid career folks this is our first real economic pinch. The stress is real. And some people aren’t handling it well! I’m sure you’ve seen a lot of that lately. Whether it’s layoffs, deal cycles getting longer, renewals lapsing, or just overall tension ticking up you can feel the fear that has not been commonplace for the past decade in this workforce.

In other ways, this is a really interesting and clarifying time for teams and you leaders out there. Company success does ultimately come down to focus and building with limited resources. The landscape has been simplified. Less chatter about weekly crypto riches, life changing acquisitions, skyrocketing compensation, and those SPACs. Remember that NYT article titled “Everyone Is Getting Hilariously Rich And You’re Not“? Hope they cashed some of those gains..

Unless you woke up as a Figma employee yesterday. Good for you! Which is an appropriate segue to an important point amidst the rubble everywhere else. Your revenue matters. A lot. Not even so much the amount, or the rate of growth, but the composition. Yes SaaS multiples are compressed. But those companies are still very well positioned. Marketplace, media, ad tech businesses? Pain. Recurring revenue and a manageable cost structure is a huge foundational advantage in a recession. Don’t forget it!

What else does this new phase mean for us all? Well, if you’ve been somewhere for a while it’s a great time to reevaluate if this new chapter involves you sticking around. If you joined because of the tremendous financial upside, perhaps look into that crystal ball to check in with yourself. I mean if you joined anywhere new in  2021 you better like the product & the mission because…you’re underwater on those options. You’ll still probably learn a lot! But your financial upside is minimal. For a while.

So as we head into the fall with uncertainty swirling, I’m thrilled to be back with you all to better understand what this new chapter of the tech industry means for us leaders. It’s going to be an interesting ride. I’m also looking forward to learning more about the startup landscape around Boston. If anyone knows someone who might be good to connect with, reach out!